Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas.
...North FL to eastern NC the remainder of the afternoon...
The earlier supercell structures have largely weakened across north
FL/southeast GA, though newer bowing segments have formed and are
moving across eastern NC with recent severe gusts of 60-64 mph.
Forcing for ascent is modest well downstream of a positive-tilt
midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley, and the ongoing convection
is ahead of the surface cold front. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates will help maintain
the ongoing storms for the remainder of the afternoon from north FL
to eastern NC. Damaging gusts (60-70 mph) will be the main threat
with bowing segments with more north-south oriented segments in the
primarily unidirectional wind profiles, though a couple of tornadoes
remain possible before the severe threat diminishes this evening.
..Thompson.. 04/07/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/
...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas...
The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough
with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across
the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath
relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a
northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a
northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists
across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and
the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have
recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and
the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133.
A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F
dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints
into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation
especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of
already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer,
oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will
continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of
tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall
potential expected to diminish by around sunset.
Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward
along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear
convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary
severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some
tornado potential will also exist.
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