Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of
northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas.
...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas...
The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough
with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across
the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath
relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a
northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a
northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists
across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and
the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have
recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and
the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133.
A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F
dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints
into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation
especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of
already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer,
oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will
continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of
tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall
potential expected to diminish by around sunset.
Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward
along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear
convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary
severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some
tornado potential will also exist.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025
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