Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas
across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight.
The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds
will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast
Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.
...Arklatex to southern Illinois...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts another notable short-wave
trough having rounded the base of the longer wave over northern
Mexico. This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern
Plains and will encourage a strengthening LLJ downstream into the
Arklatex by 18z. LLJ will increase in intensity as it translates
into the lower OH Valley later tonight. Latest guidance does not
develop a particularly noteworthy surface low along the primary
synoptic front, but a developing wave/weak low will track into
western AR by late afternoon, then into southern IL by 05/06z. This
evolution should allow the surface boundary currently draped across
western TN/southern AR to lift north. The warm front will likely
advance into southeast MO/southern IL where significant
destabilization is expected as very moist boundary layer returns to
this region.
Scattered thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal coverage
across west TX in response to the approaching short wave. This
activity is elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates are conducive
for hail with any supercells that develop. Significant MUCAPE is
expected along the cool side of the boundary and strong-severe
thunderstorms should spread north of the wind shift ahead of the
disturbance.
Of more concern is the corridor from northeast TX into southern IL.
Surface dew points are currently in the lower 70s across southeast
TX into northern LA. This air mass will spread north ahead of the
weak wave and daytime heating will contribute to strong buoyancy
along this corridor. Very strong shear will support long-lived
supercells within a high-PW environment. Any storms that develop
across the warm sector ahead of the low/front should generate hail,
potentially in excess of 2 inches, and tornadoes are certainly
possible, along with a potential for a few to be intense and/or
long-track. Severe threat will spread northeast into the lower Ohio
Valley during the late-evening/overnight hours as the LLJ shifts
into this region.
..Darrow/Supinie.. 04/04/2025
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