Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY TO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along a
corridor from Kentucky-Tennessee-Arkansas-southwest Texas. Storms
across Texas will develop later tonight.
...01z Update...
While heights are broadly rising across much of the CONUS this
evening, the back edge of a weak disturbance is ejecting across AR.
Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well, and deepest
convective updrafts are noted across eastern AR into the TN Valley.
LLJ will translate downstream ahead of this feature, focusing across
KY by midnight, then gradual weakening is expected as the
aforementioned disturbance lifts northeast. Storms have struggled to
develop south of the synoptic front, thus elevated thunderstorms
should be the primary concern the rest of the period. Even so, 00z
sounding from SHV was quite impressive with SBCAPE on the order of
4000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. While elevated convection
should be the primary storm mode, if supercells can evolve
near/south of the front environmental parameters favor very large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The primary concern across the
near-frontal warm sector is storm coverage due to relatively weak
low-level convergence.
Later tonight, LLJ will once again increase across the Edwards
Plateau of TX and a 50kt jet should evolve by sunrise as the next
minor short wave approaches. Surface front will not retreat much
west of I35 across TX so robust elevated convection is expected to
generate hail.
..Darrow.. 04/04/2025
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