Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from
the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest
risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a
few tornadoes are likely.
...20z Update...
The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities
behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will
continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through
tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial
cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should
continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few
embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening.
Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and
should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the
outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone
will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization
and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold
pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone.
Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line
with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with
damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible.
Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core
upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold
mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail
and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM.
Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated
thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this
afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear
and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be
minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be
ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be
below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted
probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more
robust.
..Lyons.. 04/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/
...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA...
A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and
northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very
moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface
winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the
1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to
favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS
spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast
soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated
boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete
convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with
tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a
concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region.
...Southern IL/IN...
A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN
today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the
area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm
development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by
evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.
...West TX into southwest OK...
Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing
destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see
widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon.
Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable
deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger
cells.
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