Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Valid 301630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this
evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with
the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few
tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential.
Damaging winds and large hail are also possible.
...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA...
A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and
northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very
moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface
winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the
1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to
favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS
spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast
soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated
boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete
convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with
tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a
concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region.
...Southern IL/IN...
A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN
today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the
area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm
development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by
evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.
...West TX into southwest OK...
Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing
destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see
widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon.
Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable
deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger
cells.
..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TKT9FG
