Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK
INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe
weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely
during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential
should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are likely as well.
...Upper MS Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper
trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level
winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley.
Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is
evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and
evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will
result in scattered intense thunderstorms.
Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints
rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime
heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft
will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold
front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central
MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent
across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large
hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the
evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather.
...Northern MO...
Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern
for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While
low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area
compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for
tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado
probabilities that far south.
...OK/TX...
Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from
western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak
across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered
intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by
mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening.
Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region.
..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025
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