Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert
Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The severe weather
potential is expected to remain low.
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a low will move across the Desert Southwest today, as
a jet streak moves southward through the western part of the system
over the far eastern Pacific. Strong large-scale ascent and steep
mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of Arizona and
north-central New Mexico. Isolated storms could also develop in far
southern Colorado and in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle.
Tonight, the mid-level low will move into western New Mexico, as the
associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of the
system into northern Mexico. Ahead of the jet, moisture will return
northward into the southern Plains. As instability increases near
the moist axis overnight, thunderstorm development will be likely
across parts of north-central Texas and far southern Oklahoma.
Forecast soundings toward the end of the period in north-central
Texas suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km, with
MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. This
could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe
threat is expected to be low.
..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/07/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TJNGB8
