Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes
required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of
the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent
LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low
for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning
across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent
lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into
the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for
additional details.
..Moore.. 03/06/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the
trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast
continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over
central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley.
Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the
southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as
it shifts eastward into the MS Valley.
Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that
currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern
Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with
this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central
and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is
anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains
as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the
pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to
mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable.
Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and
into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around
the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the
associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy
fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures
aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of
the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are
anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave
trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong
ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures.
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