Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a
squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central
Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts,
and large hail are all possible.
...Southern/Central Plains...
A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet
will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the
southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent
associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee
cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should
deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it
develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps
east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of
the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the
upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will
continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead
of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current
expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based
thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z.
Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the
Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense
thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into
south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures
aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear
will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with
an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick
transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front
moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north
TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within
the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming
sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based
convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing
near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the
strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to
support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it
sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end
of the period (early Tuesday morning).
Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints
into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of
southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some
guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return
likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around
63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of
western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective
initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and
severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this
region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best
combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast.
..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025
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