Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall
line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts,
large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.
...KS/OK/TX...
A large and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning
across the Great Basin. As this system and an associated 90-100
knot mid-level jet emerge into the Rockies and high Plains this
afternoon, rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO.
Southerly low-level winds throughout the southern Plains will
transport Gulf moisture northward with 50s dewpoints into southeast
KS and lower 60s into central OK. It appears likely that the region
will remain capped to convective initiation through the afternoon
and much of the evening. However, rapid and intense thunderstorm
development is expected after 03z in south-central KS and northwest
OK as the Pacific cold front impinges on the dryline, and large
scale lift overspreads the area.
Initial storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse
rates and favorable low-level shear for a few supercells capable of
large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to
quickly coalesce into a squall line along the front as it races
eastward across southern KS and much of OK. Storms will also build
southward into north/central TX through the overnight period. Very
strong low-level wind fields (850mb winds of 50-70 knots) and
mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km will maintain a risk of damaging
wind gusts and hail through the early morning hours. A few QLCS
tornadoes, or perhaps embedded supercellular tornadoes, are also
possible late tonight as activity progresses across southern OK and
north TX. The primary forecast uncertainties limiting confidence
for an upgrade at this time involve the limited low-level moisture
(upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and weak CAPE due to late timing of
event. These parameters will be re-evaluated in later outlooks.
..Hart/Grams.. 03/03/2025
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