Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central
Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight.
...Southern Plains...
Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the
central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor
imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within
this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across
north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal
heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed
into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk
for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm
advection will become the primary instigator in convective
development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into
the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated
convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into
northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become
rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk,
and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk
appears warranted the rest of tonight.
..Darrow.. 03/26/2025
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