Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated
thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts
of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas.
...20Z Update...
The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were
to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the
central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High
Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best,
and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or
two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in
these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too
low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/
...FL...
A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the
southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample
low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE
values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze
circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms
through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered.
However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be
sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind
through early evening.
...TX/OK...
Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly
low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer
air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to
develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM
solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is
not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail
and gusty winds for a few hours.
Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm
advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to
scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast
TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds.
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