Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated
thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts
of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas.
...Southern Florida Peninsula...
The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies
aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough.
Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will
support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this
afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind
profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should
encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be
severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could
occur with this diurnally driven activity.
...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas...
Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses
northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong
boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the
I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by
late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent
HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective
development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest
that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is
plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability
and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma.
Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with
some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near
the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in
diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant
consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent
outlooks.
..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025
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