Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated
thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts
of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas.
...Southern FL Peninsula...
Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this
morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude
short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL
Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level
temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb
forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s.
Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep
mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat
modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection,
some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail
could be noted with this diurnally driven activity.
...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX...
Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the
upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S.
Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded
disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even
so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind
field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and
some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central
TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is
expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by
late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF
members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will
evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear
possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection
should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This
elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind
gusts.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025
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