Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and
satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very
little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over
southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance
eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong
large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany
this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak
instability until later this evening, mainly on the
subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually
move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the
potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very
limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere,
thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS
through tonight.
..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025
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