Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona.
...Northern Arizona...
Latest satellite imagery suggests a strong upper low has settled off
the CA Coast. This feature will begin to eject inland as 100kt 500mb
speed max translates across the northern Baja Peninsula, ultimately
advancing into NM by the end of the period. This evolution will
contribute to seasonally cold mid-level temperatures spreading
across the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ by mid-late
afternoon. Focused exit region of this jet will aid large-scale
forcing such that mid-level moistening is expected within steepening
lapse rates, though overall moisture content will remain quite low.
NAM forecast sounding for GCN at 02/00z exhibits near-dry adiabatic
lapse rates through 6km which contributes to SBCAPE on the order of
100 J/kg. Given the very cold temperatures it appears shallow,
high-based convection may generate a few flashes of lightning,
though precipitation will be limited among very sparse storms.
Nocturnal cooling will lessen the risk of lightning.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/01/2025
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