Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the
CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian
Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High
surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley
in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold
front exists between the more continental air associated with this
high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the
Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should
preclude the development of deep convection along this front.
Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward
this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central
High Plains/central Plains.
Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific
Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern
Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help
induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central
High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a
southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern
Plains.
The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected
over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific
Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing
for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few
lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave
exits the region.
..Mosier.. 02/07/2025
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