Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KY TO FAR NORTHERN TN...
...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadic storms, along with isolated damaging winds and
large hail, will be possible overnight into early morning Thursday
across parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.
...KY/TN...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Mid/Lower MO Valley will
progress east across parts of the Midwest tonight. Strong
tropospheric flow attendant to this wave will overspread the
northern periphery of a warm-moist sector advancing north from the
TN Valley. This will induce weak cyclogenesis overnight within the
pronounced baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection will
strengthen later this evening, with mainly elevated convection
occurring north-northeast of the surface front. Still, some
potential will exist for near surface-based storms across the
baroclinic zone, along with a couple supercells.
A separate band of broken convection may form in the early morning
as a cold front emerges near the developing surface cyclone.
Enlarged low-level hodographs, coupled with pronounced elongation in
the mid/upper levels, could foster a couple sustained surface-based
supercells within this regime across parts of southern to central KY
and far northern TN. The categorical risk has been increased to a
level 2-SLGT for the overnight/early-morning tornado potential.
..Grams.. 02/06/2025
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