Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and
into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening.
Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated
strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into
southeast Washington.
...Central OR into southeast WA and parts of northern ID...
An intense shortwave trough will quickly move into the Pacific
Northwest, with rapid cooling aloft and increasing deep-layer winds
late in the day. Although total CAPE values will be low, the
combination of strong large-scale ascent, increasing mean wind
speeds, and steepening lapse rates will likely favor an arcing line
of low-topped convection coincident with the strong vort max. Models
suggest convection developing close to 21Z over the Cascades, with
an eventual push east with possible convective system persisting
perhaps into northern ID. The northern extent of the risk area will
be limited by cooler surface temperatures, but strong winds cannot
be ruled out immediately north of the current Marginal Risk.
...Florida Keys into far southern Florida...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move across the Gulf of America
during the day, extending from FL into western Cuba by 12Z Tuesday.
Cool midlevel temperatures with this system will extend rather far
south late in the day, with -14 C at 500 mb.
At the surface, low pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf
by 00Z, with a cold front extending south. Increasing southwest
winds will bring moisture northward with dewpoints near 70 F across
the Keys and into the southern FL Peninsula.
Through midday, showers and storms will likely affect the eastern
Gulf into central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula, with
gradual destabilization south of the warm front. Strong storms are
likely to be maintained along the cold front as it progresses east
through the late evening. A broken line of cells may offer strong
downdraft potential, though low-level winds speeds will not be
particularly strong. As such, any tornado potential may be weak and
brief.
..Jewell/Thornton.. 02/24/2025
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