Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts
of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail
should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional
severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast.
...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana...
A mid-level shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward from
the Great Basin to the southern Plains by tonight. At the surface,
an arctic cold front will continue surging southward across TX
through the day, eventually reaching the TX Coast by late tonight.
Modest low-level moisture is forecast to advance northward
along/near the middle/upper TX Coast ahead of the front.
Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of
southeast TX as the shortwave trough approaches. Various NAM/RAP
forecast soundings suggest this convection will likely remain
elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Still, around 1000-1250
J/kg of MUCAPE aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong deep-layer shear in the cloud bearing layer, may support
isolated severe hail with the more robust cores. This activity will
spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and
overnight while posing mainly a continued hail threat. There is also
a low, but non-zero, chance of near-surface-based thunderstorms
along the immediate LA Coast late tonight into early Wednesday
morning, where somewhat greater low-level moisture should be
present. If convection can become surface-based across this area,
then isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado would be possible.
..Gleason/Dean.. 02/18/2025
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