Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX
AND SOUTH LA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts
of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight. Large
hail should be the primary hazard, but a tornado and severe gusts
will be possible along the immediate Louisiana coast.
...Southeast TX and south LA...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin will
progress east and reach the Mid-MS to Lower Red River Valley by
early morning Wednesday. Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur
tonight over the northwest Gulf, as a baroclinic zone strengthens in
its wake with a surface ridge expanding south across the southern
Great Plains. The downstream surface warm front should approach
coastal LA, mainly near the mouth of the MS River, struggling to
displace the modified continental air mass inland.
Prior to the arrival of the Arctic air mass nosing south over the
Plains, Gulf air should spread across parts of the Lower to Middle
TX Coast this afternoon. To the northeast of this across southeast
TX, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should foster
elevated thunderstorms by early evening. While MUCAPE should remain
weak amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, favorable speed shear
within a nearly unidirectional west-southwesterly wind profile will
support a threat for isolated severe hail. Elevated convection will
likely consolidate into a broadening cluster in the mid to late
evening across southeast TX and LA, further reinforcing the stable
surface air mass inland where mid-level lapse rates will also be
weaker. Overnight, organization of the cluster/short-line segments
should occur near the immediate LA coast. Embedded supercell
structures may brush the mouth of the MS River vicinity with an
attendant tornado/severe gust threat.
..Grams/Thornton.. 02/18/2025
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