Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south
Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight.
...20z Update...
The prior forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments
to the thunder area. A well-defined cold front, quickly moving over
the southern Plains and western MS valley, will likely continue to
undercut the modified Gulf air mass over parts over southern TX.
Increasing large-scale ascent over the western edge of the moist
sector and cold front will support a gradual increase in convective
coverage over south-central and west TX this evening and into the
overnight hours. Weak to moderate elevated buoyancy and 40-50 kt of
effective shear could support a few organized elevated supercell or
bowing structures with a risk of hail or an isolated damaging gust
over south TX tonight. Weak buoyancy will also likely extend across
northern OK and the Ozarks supporting a risk for scattered
thunderstorms. Have extended the thunder area farther northeast for
lightning potential late tonight.
Across the southeast, recent model guidance suggests storms may
persist a bit farther east into parts of AL/GA. While buoyancy will
be very weak, inland advection of upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints
could sustain some elevated thunder potential late tonight.
..Lyons.. 02/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/
...South TX to MS/AL through tonight...
Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in
the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s
with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest
low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km
AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the
band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the
storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short
term.
Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual
increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization
through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel
lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures
of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive
MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open
warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the
front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this
afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the
front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and
perhaps a tornado.
Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and
immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a
midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward.
Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop
the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg,
while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will
be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of
producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage.
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