Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX AND MS/AL...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south
Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight.
...South TX to MS/AL through tonight...
Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in
the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s
with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest
low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km
AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the
band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the
storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short
term.
Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual
increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization
through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel
lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures
of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive
MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open
warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the
front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this
afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the
front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and
perhaps a tornado.
Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and
immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a
midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward.
Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop
the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg,
while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will
be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of
producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage.
..Thompson/Moore.. 02/11/2025
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