Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts
of the southern Great Plains tonight.
..Southern Great Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the
Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward
through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos.
Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to
limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over
south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass
over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill
Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon
over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit
storm intensity.
By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the
early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE)
from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The
arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the
approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the
development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern
OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will
support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger
updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase
during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become
oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong
to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A
surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on
the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight.
A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop
with this activity.
..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025
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