Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of
the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight.
...Synopsis...
A closed upper low will drift slowly across the Southwest on
Wednesday and start to accelerate east by the end of the period. As
this upper low advances east, a low-level jet will strengthen across
the southern Plains with a sharpening surface cold front from
southeast Oklahoma to central Texas by the end of the period.
...Southern Plains...
Richer low-level moisture remains in the Gulf of Mexico early this
morning. However, by mid-morning it will start to advance inland as
low-level flow strengthens ahead of the mid-level low. This will
continue through the day with gradual elevated instability
developing from South Texas to North Central Texas. A few elevated
thunderstorms may move across Oklahoma and western Arkansas during
the afternoon, but these storms should be weak amid weak elevated
instability.
By around 03Z, the combination of increasing instability (750-1000
J/kg MUCAPE) and increasing isentropic ascent with the strengthening
low-level jet should result in widespread thunderstorm development
across Central and North Texas between 03 and 06Z. These storms,
with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and strong (50+ knots) of effective
shear, may have an isolated hail threat.
Through time, particularly after 06Z, surface based instability will
develop across central and south-central Texas as dewpoints rise
into the low to mid 60s. In this narrow corridor of greater
instability ahead of the front after 12Z, a few severe thunderstorms
capable of large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado, will
be possible. However, the overall threat from this activity is
expected to remain muted due to weak ( CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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