Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid/upper-level low over
CA. A split-flow pattern is located downstream over the central
U.S. with southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest, and
northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest in association with
large-scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay. Cold mid-level
temperatures associated with the CA upper low will yield
intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy from the central valley into
southern coastal CA. As a result, weak convection may yield a few
sporadic lightning flashes mainly today into this evening. Farther
east, persistent low-level warm/moist advection, via the warm
conveyor atop a slowly modifying CP airmass along the northwest Gulf
Coast, will favor showers and eventually scattered thunderstorm
development over east TX into the lower MS Valley. Despite strong
mid to high-level westerly flow, limited storm organization is
forecast due primarily to weak instability. A vigorous updraft or
two cannot be ruled out over east TX on the eastern periphery of
steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX
raob; 8.7 deg C/km). Yet, gradual moistening of the mid troposphere
via convection will act to hinder a localized Marginal hail risk.
..Smith/Kerr.. 01/26/2025
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