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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

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Sunday, January 26, 2025

SPC Jan 26, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into
tonight from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi
Valley, as well as portions of the central and southern California
coastline and adjacent interior areas. No severe threat is expected.

...Discussion...
Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper-level low will continue to
support some instability across California. The best instability and
thunderstorm potential will be along the coast in central and
Southern California where relatively warm ocean waters and greater
moisture will lead to somewhat greater instability than farther
inland. However, the weak instability will limit any severe weather
potential.

A persistent low-level jet (~30 knots) will be present across
southeast Texas across much of the Gulf Coast states on Sunday and
Sunday night with weak isentropic ascent through the period. This
will likely result in showers and thunderstorms for much of the
period. Despite strong shear (45 to 55 knots), storm organization is
expected to be somewhat lacking due to the relatively weak
instability. The best chance for an isolated large hail report will
be across portions of East Texas where ~500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast
with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. However, even in this
area, large hail potential remains too low to introduce a Marginal
risk.

..Bentley/Moore.. 01/26/2025


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