Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are low across the CONUS today.
...Coastal Texas...
Low-level warm advection is expected to remain focused along the TX
Coast during the first half of the period. Notable surface boundary
that is currently located over the northwestern Gulf Basin will be
shunted southeast as mid-level flow becomes more northwesterly with
the passage of a short-wave trough over the central Gulf States.
Scattered elevated convection is currently noted along the cool side
of the boundary, but lightning has struggled to materialize with
this activity as updrafts are a bit too shallow/weak. Forecast
soundings along the TX Coast suggest a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE if
lifting a parcel around 750mb, but EL temperatures are marginal for
lightning. A few of the more robust updrafts may penetrate levels
that could support lightning, but thunderstorm activity is expected
to remain a bit too sparse (less than 10 percent) to warrant an
outlook this period.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/15/2025
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