Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...OH Valley tonight...
An 80-100 knot mid-level jet max will move quickly eastward across
the central Plains today, and into the mid MS Valley tonight.
Strong cyclogenesis will occur in advance of this system over MO/IL,
with the primary baroclinic zone sweeping across AR into KY/TN.
Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector of the
deepening low will result in broad low-level warm/moist advection,
and perhaps just enough CAPE for a few thunderstorms late tonight
across the lower and middle OH Valley. Forecast soundings show
impressive low-level shear profiles, but thermodynamics are quite
weak with surface-based convection unlikely. Thus the severe threat
is low.
..Hart/Lyons.. 12/30/2024
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