Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over most of the CONUS in
mid/upper levels, except for progressive shortwave ridging in
between these two perturbations:
1. A strong, negatively tilted shortwave trough apparent in
moisture-channel imagery from a 500-mb low over Lake Huron,
southeastward WV to coastal SC. This feature is expected to lose
amplitude while pivoting northeastward up the East Coast and
central/northern Appalachians, and across the Lower Great Lakes,
through the end of the period. The associated surface cold front is
offshore from the mid-Atlantic, and extends southwestward across
central FL to the central Gulf, where frontal deceleration and
weakening are expected through most of the period.
2. An initially weaker shortwave trough, evident from the Black
Hills southward over eastern CO. This feature should strengthen
today and tonight as several proximal vorticity lobes phase with
each other, and ageostrophic/baroclinic forcings intensify. The
trough should move east-southeastward across the central Plains and
lower Missouri Valley, reaching the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South
region by 12Z tomorrow. In the wake of prior cold-frontal passage,
low/middle-level moisture will be weak, yet still sufficient to
support isolated, nocturnal, non-severe thunderstorms amidst a
corridor of strong large-scale ascent/destabilization aloft, from
the mid-Mississippi Valley to lower Ohio Valley region.
..Edwards/Grams.. 12/30/2024
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