Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the
lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe
thunderstorms are not expected.
...20z Update...
No changes were made to the outlook. Sporadic thunderstorms are
possible over parts of central and southern TX late this
evening/overnight. Severe storms are not expected given very weak,
elevated buoyancy and marginal deep-layer shear. See the prior
discussion for more info.
..Lyons.. 12/03/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced
by an amplifying and southeastward-digging shortwave trough over the
Canadian Prairie provinces toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
through tonight. Surface high pressure across the Southeast and
cool/stable low-level trajectories across most of the Gulf of Mexico
will generally limit/spatially confine thunderstorm potential
through the period. However, across TX weak mid-level height rises
are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening
near a coastal front. This will further influenced by modestly
increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late
this evening and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on
the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning,
potentially in a northward-expanding fashion across parts of central
TX tonight into early Wednesday morning. Modest surface-based
instability may develop inland along the immediate lower/middle TX
coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse
rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak. Therefore,
severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.
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