Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the
lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe
thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced
by an amplifying and southeastward-digging shortwave trough over the
Canadian Prairie provinces toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
through tonight. Surface high pressure across the Southeast and
cool/stable low-level trajectories across most of the Gulf of Mexico
will generally limit/spatially confine thunderstorm potential
through the period. However, across TX weak mid-level height rises
are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening
near a coastal front. This will further influenced by modestly
increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late
this evening and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on
the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning,
potentially in a northward-expanding fashion across parts of central
TX tonight into early Wednesday morning. Modest surface-based
instability may develop inland along the immediate lower/middle TX
coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse
rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak. Therefore,
severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/03/2024
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