Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible
this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into
the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a relatively compact but
potent mid-level shortwave trough over west/northwest TX, and this
feature will move east to the Ark-La-Tex by late evening before
reaching western TN/northern MS by early Friday morning. In the low
levels, a weak surface low will consolidate over northeast TX by
late afternoon/early evening before moving into northern AR late
overnight. A warm frontal zone will advance northward across much
of east TX and western LA with lower 60s dewpoints near the I-20
corridor and mid 60s over the coastal plain (locally mid-upper 60s
in upper coast of TX). Considerable cloud cover will likely limit
the overall magnitude of destabilization today.
In relative agreement with previous forecast thinking, convective
development should begin mid-late morning over north TX and
subsequently southward along the I-35 corridor. Weak capping will
erode such as scattered to numerous storms will likely develop
during afternoon near the low/frontal zone and in the warm sector
near and west of the Sabine River. Forecast soundings show enlarged
hodographs with sufficient buoyancy for rotating storms capable of
all hazards, primarily this afternoon into the early evening. The
aforementioned expanding thunderstorm coverage and linear evolution
will lessen the hail risk towards evening. Concurrently, this
should favor more of a scattered damaging wind/isolated risk for a
tornado into the evening, gradually lowering into the overnight as
buoyancy lessens.
..Smith/Grams.. 12/26/2024
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