Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with a potential for isolated large hail, wind
damage, and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening
from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower
Mississippi Valley.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across central Texas
today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the
trough. At the surface, a low will move through northeast Texas, as
a cold front advances eastward across central Texas this afternoon.
Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will return northward into
east Texas, with surface dewpoints reaching the mid 60s F across
most of southeast Texas extending eastward into southern and central
Louisiana. As the front advances eastward, convective initiation is
expected around midday along the I-35 corridor from near Austin to
Waco. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand quickly across the
moist airmass in east Texas by mid afternoon. MCS development will
be possible from late afternoon into the evening. A line of storms
is expected to move eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower
Mississippi Valley during the evening.
Extensive cloud cover is forecast over much of the warm sector
today, which will likely limit surface heating. MLCAPE is forecast
to peak from near 1500 J/kg in the Houston area to near 1000 J/kg in
northeast Texas. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in the
afternoon ahead of the front in much of east Texas have moderate to
strong deep-layer shear suggesting supercells will be possible with
storms that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will be capable of
producing isolated large hail and severe gusts. Concerning the
tornado threat, the best area could be near Houston in the late
afternoon, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak
near 300 m2/s2. However, forecast soundings have surface winds
veering to the south-southwest somewhat early, suggesting the window
for tornadoes could be brief. Model solutions suggest that a line of
storms will organize by late afternoon, with the line moving
eastward from far east Texas into southern Arkansas and Louisiana
during the evening. This line should be associated with a potential
for severe gusts, a few tornadoes and hail.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/26/2024
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