Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally
severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas
tonight.
...01z Update...
Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine
River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a
modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a
surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX.
While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across
the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX
ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition,
scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of
the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This
convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale
forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface
temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is
frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the
boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer
shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of
generating hail and gusty winds.
..Darrow.. 12/25/2024
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