Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and
marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon
into this evening across east-central Texas.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough,
evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the
southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central
and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures
and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate
instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass
continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong
thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across
east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening
mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help
storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for
College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear
in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5
C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with
isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop
along the more intense parts of the line.
..Broyles.. 12/24/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/
...Central/East TX...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging
into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the
trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east
TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery
shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of
steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon
destabilization.
Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to
intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures
aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will
promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build
southwestward along the front during the early evening into central
TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds.
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