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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS WEATHER
O'Hare International Airport KORD (Arlington Heights South)
Chicago Executive Airport KPWK (Arlington Heights North)

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

SPC Dec 24, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and
marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon
into this evening across east-central Texas.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough,
evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the
southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central
and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures
and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate
instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass
continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong
thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across
east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening
mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help
storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for
College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear
in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5
C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with
isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop
along the more intense parts of the line.

..Broyles.. 12/24/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/

...Central/East TX...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging
into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the
trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east
TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery
shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of
steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon
destabilization.

Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to
intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures
aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will
promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build
southwestward along the front during the early evening into central
TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds.


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