Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this
afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida
Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton.
...20z Update...
The primary change for this update was an eastward shift of the 10%
and SIG tornado risk areas across the FL Peninsula. Recent radar
imagery shows a prominent rain band with embedded supercells
extending from central to south-central FL. The expectation is for
the primary tornado threat to be focused along and ahead of this
arcing band as storms move towards a higher theta-e air mass in
place along Florida's east coast and as kinematic profiles continue
to strengthen with the approach of Hurricane Milton (see MCDs #2141
and #2142 for additional short-term details). Tornado probabilities
have been reduced along Florida's west coast primarily due to the
approach of the main rain bands/core of Hurricane Milton, which will
limit the potential for long-lived supercells to some degree.
However, embedded circulations within subsequent rain bands may
linger into the overnight hours.
..Moore.. 10/09/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/
...FL Peninsula...
Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight
per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the
west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite
imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few
potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake
Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the
Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape
Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s
with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable
for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally
reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon
and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging
hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic
tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few
strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible.
As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore
the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a
tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The
tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift
eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday
morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore.
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