Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Potential for a tornado or two will continue tonight across central
and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula in association with
Hurricane Milton.
...Central and eastern Florida...
Hurricane Milton has very recently made landfall near Sarasota, and
will very gradually weaken with time as the storm moves fully
inland. A notable dry slot has wrapped into southern portions of
the storm, with much of the southern half of the peninsula now
rain-free. The strongest convective band, including strong/rotating
cells -- which was earlier responsible for producing multiple inland
tornadoes -- is now well off the eastern/Atlantic Coast.
While low-level shear across much of central and eastern Florida
remains quite conducive for updraft rotation/tornado potential, the
sustained lack of any appreciable convective banding east and south
of the center will continue to limit tornado potential. Greatest
risk appears to remain immediately ahead of the track of Milton's
eye -- i.e. roughly the central third of the Peninsula including
Orlando and Melbourne. Overall however, risk appears to have
decreased sufficiently to warrant downgrade to level 1/MRGL risk for
the remainder of the period.
..Goss.. 10/10/2024
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