Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening.
...20z Update...
The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update.
Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level
flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from
the Pacific Northwest.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/
...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South...
A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this
update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely
organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this
afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley.
Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent,
and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of
MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow
associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the
ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer
shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall
severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability.
Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be
considered with the next scheduled update (20Z).
...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes...
Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast
to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger
low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great
Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for
gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low.
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