Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Valid 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms capable of wind gusts are
possible today from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into
east/northeast Texas.
...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South and ArkLaTex/East Texas...
An extensive northeast/southwest-oriented squall line (650 miles
long), with considerable trailing stratiform precipitation, extends
from the Wabash River/Lower Ohio River southwestward into the middle
of Arkansas toward the ArkLaTex and broader parts of northeast Texas
at daybreak. This activity squall has been sub-severe in the predawn
hours, but some re-intensification is possible into the afternoon as
the boundary layer warms ahead of the slow-east/southeastward-moving
squall line and effective front.
Regionally, stronger flow aloft/deep-layer shear will reside across
the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley where
destabilization will be rather weak. Stronger instability will exist
southwestward across east Texas/ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi
Valley (as per 12Z Little Rock AR observed sounding). However, a
mid-level subsidence inversion will also tend to exist (sampled by
12Z Shreveport LA observed sounding), with a weakening low-level
wind field through the day. As such, only isolated marginally severe
wind gusts are expected regionally. Any such severe risk should
diminish by around sunset.
..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/31/2024
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