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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS WEATHER

Sunday, October 27, 2024

SPC Oct 27, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as
a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling
temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates
as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated
weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels
could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by
late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm
potential this evening and overnight.

Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern
MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short
term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale
ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating
occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across
the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where
a surface front is currently located, this feature should support
convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level
convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 10/27/2024


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