Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific
Northwest and coastal Carolinas.
...Discussion...
Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific
Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough.
Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and
thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak
convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast
soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for
lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder
probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast.
Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig
southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late
afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the
coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally,
weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the
boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse
rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so,
this activity will remain weak and limited.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024
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