Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over IA/MO will continue eastward toward
Lower MI/IN/OH and lose amplitude, while phasing gradually with an
upstream trough now over MT. Isolated, elevated thunderstorms will
be possible this morning across the middle MS Valley in the zone of
ascent. Weak buoyancy and ascent will come out of phase by later
this afternoon into tonight, when the threat for thunderstorms will
diminish. Farther north, weak convection and isolated lightning
flashes may occur across northeast MN in a band of ascent and
minimal buoyancy along a cold front this afternoon/evening.
Elsewhere, lingering low-level moisture, a subtle midlevel trough,
and surface heating over higher terrain could support isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon over the Davis Mountains in southwest
TX.
..Thompson/Goss.. 10/22/2024
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