Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Valid 201300Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM...
...SUMMARY...
Occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), isolated
strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph), and a couple of tornadoes
will be possible across eastern New Mexico this afternoon/evening.
...Eastern NM this afternoon/evening...
In response to gradual upstream height falls over the Great Basin, a
closed midlevel low now over northeast AZ will move
east-northeastward to southern CO/northern NM by Monday morning. A
narrow corridor of moisture return (boundary-layer dewpoints in the
mid-upper 50s) will be maintained across eastern NM, along and east
of a diffuse lee trough/weak cold front. Pockets of surface heating
in cloud breaks across southern/southeastern NM will boost buoyancy
during the afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) when convective
inhibition will be quite weak and thunderstorm coverage/intensity
are both expected to increase across eastern NM. Midlevel lapse
rates will not be particularly steep, but relatively long hodographs
will favor supercells capable of producing occasional large hail
(1-2 inches in diameter), as well as isolated strong outflow gusts
(50-60 mph). Additionally, an increase in low-level hodograph
curvature through the afternoon/evening in a sufficiently moist
environment will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes.
..Thompson/Goss.. 10/20/2024
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