LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
A risk for hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or
two, is forecast across eastern New Mexico from mid-afternoon to
mid-evening.
...Eastern New Mexico...
500mb speed max appears to be translating through the base of the
trough into the downstream side of the upper low over western NM
early this morning. This evolution will finally warrant an ejection
of the low into southern CO by the end of the period. Large-scale
surface pattern remains favorable for southeasterly boundary-layer
flow across the southern High Plains as a dominant surface
anticyclone persists downstream from eastern OK into the Middle
Atlantic.
Deep convection has been common ahead of the upper trough the last
few days, especially across NM where longer-lived
updrafts/supercells have been observed at times during the late
afternoon/early evening. This is once again expected later today as
the strongest low-level heating will extend from northern Mexico
into the Colorado Plateau and western slopes of the Sacramento
Mountains. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating will lead
to weak inhibition across this region by 20z and thunderstorms
should readily develop, subsequently spreading downstream into
eastern NM where shear favors some longer-lived updrafts. While the
magnitude of instability will not be that strong, lapse rates will
be sufficiently steep for robust updrafts and supercells. Greatest
risk for strong/severe convection will be from mid-afternoon through
mid-evening. Some risk for all hazards is possible across portions
of eastern NM. Eastern extent of this activity will drop off sharply
due to the influence of drier/more stable low-level air mass over
the southern Plains.
..Darrow/Moore.. 10/20/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TFX8vn
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MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).
Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.
CONVECTIVE | TORNADO | WIND | HAIL
O'Hare International Airport KORD
(Arlington Heights South)
Chicago Executive Airport KPWK
(Arlington Heights North)
Sunday, October 20, 2024
SPC Oct 20, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)