Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Four Corners States...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon,
downstream of a weak mid-level low drifting southeast from the Lower
CO Valley across AZ. Weak deep-layer shear will limit severe-storm
potential.
...Southern Great Lakes to the central Appalachians...
A broad and amplified mid-level trough will pivot southward across
the East. A swath of cold 500-mb temperatures around -30 C will
accompany this trough, supporting steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. With
a shallow tropopause and meager surface-based buoyancy, low-topped
showers will abound. The deepest of these should produce sporadic
lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon. Weak lower-level winds
will preclude organized cells.
...FL to far southeast LA...
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are most probable across the
southern tip of the peninsula where low-level moisture will be
sufficient for deep convection. Modest deep-layer shear and weak
mid-level lapse rates should mitigate a severe risk.
Farther north, pockets of low-level convergence along a
quasi-stationary front over the northeast Gulf and across the north
FL Peninsula may be sufficient for around a 10-percent thunderstorm
probability during the late afternoon. This front will accelerate
south tonight, but any convection along it should remain offshore.
..Grams/Bentley.. 10/15/2024
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