Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the
northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper
Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front
will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake
MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and
instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with
this system.
To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of
the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into
the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central
Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered
daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will
exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels.
However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly
non-severe outflow/gusts.
Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again
favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse
rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample
moisture.
Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and
NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500
mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse
rates.
..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024
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