Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for today.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged.
..Squitieri.. 09/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
A relatively quiet convective day is expected across the CONUS
today. Over portions of UT, weak/peripheral midlevel height falls
will promote isolated high-based thunderstorms capable of locally
strong gusts, aided by inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Weak
instability and flow/shear should limit thunderstorm intensity and
organization. Farther east, isolated thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon and evening over portions of the OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic -- ahead of a vertically stacked/weakening cyclone.
Very poor deep-layer lapse rates and warm air aloft may limit
lightning over many areas, though a few isolated flashes cannot be
ruled out, given some large-scale ascent.
Ahead of a quasi-stationary front draped across northern FL, diurnal
heating of a moist/uncapped air mass will support isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms across the FL Peninsula this afternoon.
Locally strong water-loaded downbursts could accompany a couple
storms over northeast FL, where low-level convergence and midlevel
flow will be slightly stronger. However, poor midlevel lapse rates
and only marginal deep-layer shear should limit the severe threat.
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