Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to
western Kentucky.
...West Texas into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley...
An upper low over CO will continue to slowly weaken as it migrates
eastward into the central Great Plains through early Monday morning.
A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will reside in
between the closed circulation and a flattening anticyclone centered
over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, a south and
southeastward movement of a surface front is forecast through today
as it moves through the Corn Belt and areas farther southwest in the
southern Great Plains.
Showers and isolated thunderstorm activity this morning extends
along and behind the front from OK northeastward into the lower MO
Valley and western Great Lakes. Considerable cloud cover will
contribute to limited diurnal heating, especially from near the Red
River northeastward into the Ozark Plateau. Morning surface
analysis shows a reservoir of lower 70s deg F dewpoints over the
Edwards Plateau (reference the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob showing a
capped but deep moist layer) with 65-70 F farther northeast from OK
through the Ozarks. Forecast soundings later this afternoon
indicate 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE---supporting a risk for a few stronger
thunderstorms near/behind the boundary/wind shift. Strong to
locally damaging gusts (50-60 mph) and perhaps hail up to around 1
inch in diameter are possible mainly this afternoon into the early
evening.
..Smith/Broyles.. 09/22/2024
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